The evaluation and research on the critical value for tourism crisis will help to greatly improve the accuracy of pre-crisis recognition. This paper takes Shanghai Bund Stampede on 2015 New Year's Eve as an example. It aims to analyze population distribution in different periods by comparing the thermodynamic diagram which has characteristics of describing the population distribution, population density and the changing trend in real time. By combining documented evidence of other accidents, this paper calculated the critical value to determine the occurrence of crowd stampede. There are two main conclusions: (1) According to the data analysis, the population density of the crisis is 5 persons per square meter; (2) the critical point of population density can be calculated by the case data. This paper expects to attract more attention on the tourism crisis warning system, hoping that the negative influence of social crises would greatly reduce.
