In recent years, severe natural events raised the concern for the so-called NaTech (natural-technological) accident scenarios: technological accidents caused by the impact of a natural event on an industrial facility or infrastructure. Severe scenarios typical of the process industry, as fires, explosions, toxic releases, and water pollution were reported as the consequence of natural events in industrial areas. The historical analysis of accidental scenarios triggered by lightning shows that the impact of a lightning on an atmospheric storage tank might be the initiating event of a severe accident. The analysis of past accident evidences that several alternative damage mechanisms and accident scenarios may follow lightning impact. Although lightning hazard is well known and is usually considered in the risk analysis of chemical and process plants, well accepted quantitative procedures to assess the contribution of accidents triggered by lightning to industrial risk are still lacking. In particular, the approaches to the assessment of accident scenarios following lightning strike are mostly based on expert judgment. In the present study, a detailed methodology is presented for the assessment of quantified event trees following lightning impact on an atmospheric tank. Different damage mechanisms have been considered in order to assess the frequencies of loss of containment due to lightning strikes. The results were used in a case study to assess the overall risk due to lightning impact scenarios in typical lay-outs of tank farms of oil refineries.
