Abstract
Various novel climate technologies and eco-innovations have already reached a mature state, but they diffuse slowly into the market. Due to this slow process the mitigation of climate change does not take the most effective path. In the literature general models for diffusion are given, but specific factors affecting the adoption of new technologies are not studied enough. Since the affecting factors are not explored, the technological substitution cannot be triggered purposefully. Therefore the aim of our research is to propose the model of technological substitution. The methodology used combines a white-box and black-box modelling approaches. As white-box model the system dynamics is used, and as the black-box artificial neural networks. Since each of these methodologies have got specific strength and weakness, by combining those methods comprehensive modelling tool is obtained. Due to our knowledge this is the first attempt to model the technological substitution process by hybrid modelling, which includes system dynamics and artificial neural networks. The obtained results show that the model can explain 89 % of the systems behaviour. Although the model was based on the one specific technological substitution process, its general application to other products and services is possible, since the developed model is fully outlined and can be used for further research of other processes.
