Currently, the forecasts research focuses on tourism in a tourist trends and tourists influencing factors. Although the forecast for the inter-annual and seasonal tourists has a wealth of research results, there is less study of everyday and real-time tourist arrivals. This paper analyzes the tourists’ real-time arrival law of Jiuzhaigou, and then the use of hierarchical clustering and Gaussian fitting mathematical methods for data processing, study the changes of day arrivals of tourist by segment analysis, and proposed a new model for the prediction of tourists in real-time arrivals. We take Jiuzhaigou Valley as an example to analysis, and experimental results show that the forecast method is effective.
