Abstract
Many industry quantitative risk analyses for large oil and gas plants were found to have limited recommendations for risk reduction, and few cost benefit or ALARP analyses. Before recommending improvements in this area, a study was made to determine whether QRA could in fact reduce risk. Study of a large number of risk analyses with follow up of experience over many years showed that QRA can in fact reduce risk, but is more limited than might be imagined. Causes of limited effectiveness of QRA were, failure to implement recommendations, limitations in the range of scenarios studied in the QRAs, limitations in analysis methodology and lack of knowledge of accident phenomena as well as failure to perform a full range of ALARP assessments. Recommendations for improved performance are improved presentation of QRA results, use of systematic lessons learned analysis, and automation of ALARP assessment.
