Abstract
This paper systematically studied the Bayesian theory and methods of modern economic management in the multivariate models, including three linear models: single equation model, multi-equation model systems and Bayesian vector VAR (p) model. Prediction tectonic theory and its application were more general Bayesian classification methods. Risk decision solutions random array parameters, Bayesian study single equation model estimation theory, including the design matrix singular linear model coefficients assumptions Bayesian test method. Random error sequence Bayesian diagnostic unit root test autocorrelation. At the same time, the Bayesian single equation model is applied to quality control, constructing Bayesian variance with mean and variance control chart the mean standard deviation unknown a Bayesian control charts. VAR model and Bayesian VAR model effects were compared, the results showed that the effect of prediction Bayesian VAR model is better than other types of predictive models.
