Abstract
In the present contribution, a semi-quantitative methodology for the attractiveness assessment of industrial facilities as potential targets of malevolent external attacks is developed. The attractiveness is hereby proposed as a proxy to the likelihood of attack in order to support a security risk screening analysis. Technical and not technical factors are considered in order to adequately depict the motives and triggers which play a role in determining attractiveness. The plant hazard potential, determined through a simplified estimation of damages on population due to a major accident triggered by an attack, formed the objective basis of the evaluation. Then, the assessment was completed through the characterization of the “perceived” value of a potential target facility. To the purpose, a set of relevant factors that influence the targeting logic on the basis of strategic and geo-political considerations was identified; next, an analytic hierarchy process was adopted to prioritize the relevant factors and define a scoring system to evaluate overall plant attractiveness. The procedure for attractiveness assessment was exemplified through the analysis of case studies, which demonstrated the importance of not limiting plant attractiveness assessment to a consequence-based evaluation, stressing the importance of geo-political, ideological and strategic incentives.
