Abstract
With the development of economic and social, problems of the stability of chemical supply chain appear. Fluctuation of chemical supply chain causes a huge impact on factories and consumers. Because of collapse of its supply chain, many companies come to failure and bankruptcy. Such accidents take severe harm not only to the chemical supply chain upstream and downstream enterprises, but also to the environment and life safety. It always brings immeasurable losses as well. Therefore, the study of chemical supply chain stability is practically significant to strengthen the safety of chemical supply chain operation, promote the sustainable development of chemical supply chain, improve the competitiveness of chemical industry, reduce global energy consumption, and protect social environment. At the same time, theoretical significance is to improve and perfect the theory of supply chain management. From the perspective of lead time, this paper analyses the influence of forecasting methods on supply chain bullwhip effect and supply chain stability. With the simulation and analysis, it can be found that no matter what kind of single prediction method we choose, bullwhip effect and the effect of its own shock will increase with the lead time increasing. This is an important factor affecting the size of the bullwhip effect. Therefore, chemical companies in supply chain should optimize the supply chain design, improve replenishment efficiency, enhance collaboration with other enterprises, and do efforts to reduce the lead time so as to enhance the stability of the supply chain. The results of the model simulation can help policy makers with better decision, as well as provide some management advice.
