Abstract
Food safety risk pre-warning is an important part of food safety management. Food poisoning incidents (FPI) is one of the important index to measure the food safety. By establishing SARIMA model, this paper conducts time-trend analysis of Chinese food poisoning incidents, makes relevant forecasting and change points detection, in order to provide reference and data support for the related research on the Chinese food safety pre-warning. During the analysis of change points, Bayesian detection method is applied to determine the time of structural break in the time series: Nov 2009, Mar 2011, and Feb 2013 respectively, which shows that some related policies by the government haven’t achieved an ideal effect, and the measures regarding the food safety require further improvement and intensified implementation.
