The aim of this paper is to use Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to conduct an analysis of the flexibility and controllability of retrofitted Heat Exchanger Network (HEN) designs. Historical plant data is often uncertain and variable but is an important tool for understanding the real-time operation of a HEN. MCS uses these uncertainties to give an analysis of the retrofitted HENs, and it can be used in a more detailed analysis of the controllability and flexibility. Using Monte Carlo Simulation, inflexibility has been defined as the probability of a HEN to fail to meet temperature targets within defined tolerances. Inflexibility can be used as a tool to guide the retrofit analysis of a HEN. A retrofit HEN design should improve the flexibility of the network without compromising on the expected energy savings. The proposed method is demonstrated using a four-stream HEN problem. The inflexibility of the network was shown to be improved with bypass control and optimal allocation of retrofit area and the proposed method succeeds in augmenting the retrofit design method so that cost-effective, flexible retrofit HENs can be identified.
