Abstract
Chemical industrial park (CIP) is a typical accident-prone safety-critical system, which is usually congested with high-density hazardous installation units. Domino effects triggered by natural hazards are one of the emerging threats in CIPs, imposing tremendous challenges on society, environment, and economy. This work focuses on analysing the evolution mechanism of natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC) from a macro-systematic perspective. Based on the disaster chain theory and the thought of system science, a disaster chain evolution system (DCES) is developed to clarify the accident propagation characteristics. Inspired by the multi-source multi-level propagation pattern of NHDC, the Na-tech layer, the domino layer and the destruction layer are used to form the specific system structure of DCES. A Markov process-based accident propagation (MPAP) model is proposed to cope with the uncertain and complex accident scenarios associated with the evolution process of NHDC. Through formulating the system response process, the proposed MPAP model can reveal the general law of accident evolution. Finally, a general system dynamic response process of DCES is provided to reveal the propagation law of domino effects triggered by natural disaster from a macro-systematic perspective.
