Migo-Sumagang M.V., Tan R.R., Aviso K.B., 2023, Mathematical Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation of Negative Emissions Technology Portfolios, Chemical Engineering Transactions, 106, 13-18.
Negative emission technologies (NETs) support climate change mitigation by capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere for storage in a separate environmental compartment. NETs have multi-footprints that may negatively affect the environment and society if these technologies are implemented on large scales. The solution is implementing multiple technologies in NET portfolios at smaller scales for sustainability and risk reduction. However, computing optimal NET portfolios are challenged by uncertainties in the availability of resources that are difficult to predict precisely. This work implements a two-step approach to evaluating the robustness of NET portfolios. The first step is mathematical modeling to generate optimal and suboptimal solutions. The second step is subjecting the solutions to Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the tradeoff between their cost and robustness against uncertain resource availability. The two-step approach is demonstrated in a case study on NET portfolios. Results show the existence of suboptimal solutions with higher costs but are more robust compared to the optimal solution. The two-step approach identifies the solutions that will perform well under uncertainty, thus supporting climate change mitigation decision analysis.
