Abstract
Climate change has attracted much attention globally due to its influence on weather patterns, leading to extreme events. In Malaysia, rising temperatures and rainfall distribution shifting pattern have led to floods and droughts, particularly affecting agricultural areas including rice fields. Among 13 granary areas in Malaysia, MADA is the largest and has been significantly impacted by the changing climate. It is crucial to identify the changes in rainfall patterns and temperature in MADA, as it directly affects crop yields and contribute to potential food security issues. Six locations within MADA were selected. Historical data from 1991 to 2020 obtained from MetMalaysia and future climate projections from CMIP5 for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, precipitation concentration index (PCI), standardized precipitation anomaly (SPA), and temperature anomaly. The evaluation of the future projections included 3 different time periods: the early century (2020 to 2046), the middle century (2047 to 2073), and the late century (2074 to 2099). The MK test detected an escalating trend of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 seasonal rainfall throughout the centuries except during late century of RCP 4.5. The SPA values portray no drought projected while PCI values represents irregular rainfall during main season. Temperature projected to increase up to 2.74 °C for RCP 4.5 and 4.83 °C for RCP 8.5. Yield projections were simulated using DSSAT 4.8 to analyse the impact of future climate on rice yields. Average yield projected for RCP 4.5 could be reduced by 18 % during early century; 21 % during middle century and 24 % during late century compared with 2021 yield data. As for RCP 8.5, average yield projected could be reduced by 19 % during early century; 22 % during middle century and 26 % during late century. This study will provide valuable insights for decision-makers and researchers in formulating effective adaptation and mitigation approaches to safeguard food security and promote sustainable development in the future.
