Abstract
China's 2060 carbon neutrality target requires coal-fired power generation and coal consumption to shrink dramatically, or to introduce carbon capture, storage and utilization technologies (CCUS). In the provinces which produce a lot of coal and export it to other regions such as Shanxi Province, there are many severe challenges to achieve carbon neutrality goal. This paper constructs a provincial level Computable General Equilibrium Model for Shanxi Province to estimate the impacts on economy based on different decarbonization scenarios in power sector. Through comparison among the quantified scenarios, a sustainable pathway to coal phasing-out is also discussed in this research. The results indicate that in the simple phasing-out of coal thermal power scenario and single deployment of CCUS technology scenario, it will be a shock to GDP due to its coal-reliance economy. In the scenario which utilizes CCUS technologies and coal phasing out in the future, it proves that CCUS will mitigate economic impacts from 2025 to 2050. So, instead of coal phasing out, a sustainable pathway with accelerating change to thermal coal with CCUS is discussed in this research. It found that in this scenario, Shanxi province can keep a lower carbon intensity with a lowest carbon reduction cost of 3.62 k RMB/t.
