Abstract
Given the growing need to decarbonize the Philippines’ energy sector at a faster pace, nuclear power has reemerged as a well-developed energy solution, serving as a transitional mechanism towards renewable energy. This study thus proposes the AHP-TOPSIS approach to evaluate systematically the low-carbon energy systems feasible in the country. The illustrative case study compares the rehabilitation of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in the Philippines with other low-carbon energy system alternatives, including solar, wind, and natural gas. The proposed Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework integrates various quantitative and qualitative factors, such as technological readiness, reliability, cost, environmental impact, public approval, and government policy. Data derived from the System Advisor Modelling software and published sources were analysed, with expert inputs from the academic, commercial, and governmental fields informing the trade-off analysis in the evaluation process. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of the ranking results from the decision model. Indications suggest that the rehabilitation of BNPP is the most favourable option, primarily due to its strong performance in environmental impact and reliability. This was followed by wind, solar, and LNG, which scored better in technological readiness and social factors. Sensitivity analysis showed the resilience of nuclear power for most scenarios, except for wind in social factors and LNG in technological readiness. Future studies involving new modular nuclear technologies may also utilize this methodology framework to compare against traditional alternatives.
